On Feb 3, ConsenSys reported that the Augor Prediction Market is favoring the Patriots to win the 2019 Super Bowl, which has now turned out to be the case.
The New England Patriots emerged victorious over the Los Angeles Rams as Augur’s crowd generated prediction markets suggested.
Betting on the High Stakes Game
A survey by Morning Consult for the American Gaming Association suggested that 1 in 10 Americans were planning to bet on the Super Bowl this year, which could hit a total of $6 billion.
Most of this money will be bet illegally, through offshore online sportsbooks, local bookies or bets between friends.
Legal betting with Nevada sportsbooks last year amounted to only $158.6 million which was a record year.
The house often charges high fees for these bets as so few people can bet legally. The Nevada sportsbook earns 7.37% in profit on average for Super Bowl bets.
On Augur the fees are only 1.97% for the “highest volume Super Bowl bet, which would add up to $3.1 million.”
In Vegas, 52% of bets were placed on the Rams and Patriots emerged as favorites with 2.5 points on January 29.
On Augur, a prediction market favored New England Patriots by 3% over the Los Angeles Rams. Another market comparing only the two teams favored the Patriots by 54.9%.
What Is Augur?
Augur is a prediction market platform where users can easily bet on a market of their choice- from sporting events to elections.
Designed on the Ethereum blockchain, the Augur protocol allows users to buy or sell shares for either or all of the possible outcomes.
When a user creates a market on Augur, he is allowed to set all possible outcomes and split these options into shares.
The sum of all the shares split should be $1, meaning a 100% probability. If somebody owns a winning share, they earn $1.
According to ConsenSys, there is a crucial difference between Vegas sportsbooks and Augur.
With Augur the market maker doesn’t dictate the odds, whereas with Vegas it does.
Augur simply focuses on the “wisdom of the crowd” to decide the probability of a certain event happening.
It is based on proven scientific evidence that a large crowd is often better at predicting outcomes than experts.