No-deal Brexit risk rising again, some banks say

March 22, 2019

(Reuters) – The risk that Britain will crash out of the EU without an agreement is rising again, some banks say, after Prime Minister Theresa May received a two-week reprieve that could be her last chance to arrange an orderly exit.

At the end of January, banks informally canvassed by Reuters saw no-deal probabilities as low but rising. But that risk appeared to have receded after parliament voted to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

But their views have shifted slightly this week after the European Union told May to get lawmakers’ approval for a Brexit deal by April 12, failing which Britain must present a new Brexit plan. In any case it has to leave the EU by May 22 — with or without a plan.

Goldman Sachs, Deutsche, JPMorgan, ING and some other banks have upped probabilities of a no-deal Brexit though they still see a relatively low 10 to 25 percent risk of this outcome. Some such as Goldman also assign a high probability to Britain ultimately opting to staying in the EU.

For an interactive version of the chart below, click here

(Reporting by London markets team; Graphic by Ritvik Carvalho; Compiled by Sujata Rao; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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